WELCOME TO MATH FACILITY [Key To The Sciences]

PROBABILITY THEORY


STATISTICS:  Is the science of collecting, representing, analyzing and interpreting of data to assist in making more effecting decisions.

 Types of statistics

1. Descriptive (method organizing and summarizing information in a clear and effective way)

2. Inferential (method of drawing conclusion about population based on information obtain from sample)

Population: A set of all units of interest in a particular study

Sample: A representative part of population is called sample

StatistiC: A numerical quantity computed from sample is called statistic

ParameteR: A numerical quantity computed from population is called parameter

Objective of statistics Is to make inference (drawing result) about a population base upon   information contain in a sample.

Data: Raw figure and facts called Data

Types of data

·         Qualitative (Are observation measure on non-numerical scale e.g eye color, hair color)

·         Quantitative (Are observation measure on numerical scale e.g height, weight)

 Types of quantitative data

§  Discrete Data (Whose possible values are countable)

§  Continuous Data (Which may assume any value in an interval)

3. Primary Data: The data which are collected first time and are original in character.

4. Secondary DatA: The data which already collected by some other person and which passed through any statistical process at least one.

Classification: The process of arranging data in groups or classes according to resemblance

Frequency distribution: Is a table showing the number items in each class.

Types of frequency distribution   
                                   (i) Discrete   (ii) Continuous

Tabulation: Order arrangement of the data in rows and columns

Range: Difference between maximum value and the minimum value
$$R=x_m-x_n$$

Mid-Range: Mean of highest and lowest value.
                                       $$\frac{x_m+x_n}{2}$$ 
Group Data: Compact form of data


Un-group data: Raw form of data 


Class: grouping of values by which data is binned for computation of frequency distribution
$$C=1+3.3\log n\;\quad n \;is\; number\; of\; observations$$
          
 Class Interval: The size of each class in which a range of a variable is divided
                                      $$h=\frac{Range}{Class}=\frac{R}{C}$$ 
Class Limit: Ending and starting points are not same

Class Boundary: Ending and starting points are same
·         Lower class is found by subtracting 0.5 from lower class limit and upper found by adding 0.5 in upper class limit.

Commutative frequency: Sum of all previous frequencies up-to current point

Measure of central tendency
A single quantity measure which could be used indicate the center of the distribution
Mean Median Mode

Arithmetic Mean: Sum of all observation divided by number of observation

  ü  UN-GROUP DATA  
      For Sample:  $\bar{X}=\frac{\sum x}{n}$                  
      For Population: $\mu=\frac{\sum x}{N}$
                                                                                                           
  ü GROUP DATA          For Sample:                     For Population: 
                                               
                                                     
Median: Most middle value in the arrangement data set

  ü Un-group data     For  Odd 
                                                         
                                           For Even  
                                                 
  ü  Group Data          
                                      
Mode: The most repeated value in the data set

  ü Group Data   
                            
Measure of Empirical relationship
·         Distribution is symmetrical if Mean=Median=Mode 
·         Distribution is non-symmetrical if Mode=3Median-2Mean

Measure of dispersion: Numerical quantity that describe the spread of values in data set.

Types of is dispersion

1. Absolute measure (Measured the variation present among the observations in the unit of variable)

2. Relative measure (Measured the variation among the observation relative to their averages)

Variants: Average of squared deviation from population mean     (OR)
                     Sum of squared deviation from their mean

  ü For Un-group data       (sample)                               (population)
                                                            
  ü FOR GROUP DATA         (sample)                                   (population)
                                                    

STANDARD DAVIATION: Positive square root of variance
                     
PROPERTIES OF VARIANTS AND STANDARD DEVIATION














CO-EFFICIENT OF VARIATION: Ratio of standard deviation to the mean express in                                                                      percentage.
                                        
·         Large value of C.V indicate the observation has much spread relation to the size of mean
·         Smallest value of C.V indicate the observation don’t have wide spread relation to the size of mean.
.
   PROBABILITY
ü  Numerical value of uncertainty
·         Probability lies between 0 & 1
·         Probability always positive
·         Probability 0 mean no-occurrence
·         Probability 1 mean always occur

PERMUTATION: Is any order subset from set of n distinct object (ways of arrangement)
                                                              
COMBINATION: Is any subset of r objects selected without regard of any order
                                                           
RANDOM EXPERIMENT: An experiment may result in different outcomes even though it is performed under similar condition.

TRAIL: Any experiment is performed only once.

Sample Space: Possible outcomes of random experiment (S).

EVENT: Any part of sample space (An event may contain one or more outcomes)

SIMPLE EVENT: An event consist of single out come.

COMPOUND EVENT: Event consist of more than two outcomes.

EQUALLY LIKELY: Outcomes of sample space called equally likely if all of them have same change of occurrence.

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE: Events are called mutually exclusive if they do not occur together 

EXHAUSTIVE EVENT: When sample space is partitioning into some mutually exclusive events such that their union is sample space its self.

TYPES OF PROBABILITY

1) OBJECTIVE: The probability that an event will occur based an analysis in which each measure is based on a recorded observation.

TYPES OF OBJECTIVE  

·         CLASSICAL PROBABILITY: If random experiment can produce n mutually and equal likely outcomes and if m out of these outcomes are consider favorable occurrence of certain event then Probability of event is
                                             
·         RELATIVE PROBABILITY: If random experiment repeated large number of times say n under identical condition and if event A is to observed to occur  m times then probability of an event is defined as 
                                      
(Also called statistical and empirical definition of probability)

·         AXIOMATIC PROBABILITY
                         
2) SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY:  Is a probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the subject's opinions and past experience.

o   CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY: The probability that Event A occurs, given that Event B has occurred. The conditional probability of Event A, given Event B, is denoted by the symbol P(A|B).

PROBABILITY LAWS

LAW OF COMPLEMENTATION: A mutually exclusive pair of events are complements to each other if
                                                               P(A) + P(A') = 1 (Where P(A') is compliment of event)

ADDITION LAW: The probability that Event A or Event B occurs is equal to the probability that Event A occurs plus the probability that Event B occurs minus the probability that both Events A and B occur.
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)



MULTIPLICATION LAW: The probability that Events A and B both occur is equal to the probability that Event A occurs times the probability that Event A occurs, given that B has occurred.

P(A ∩ B) = P(B) P(A|B)